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Slow recovery of the new energy industry

Global trade in new energy goods has continued to bounce back rapidly from its huge fall a year ago,
with an authoritative index recording the fastest monthly increase in December in its 19-year history.

Data from the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a Dutch research institute, suggest that little
permanent damage has been done to the world trading system by the financial crisis.

The bureau's widely watched composite index said that the volume of new energy goods trade
worldwide rose at 4.8 per cent in December.

The less volatile three-monthly measure also rose by a record rate in the fourth quarter of last year,
finishing 6 per cent higher than in the third quarter.

Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, said that
the rapid recovery suggested that it was largely a fall in demand that had caused trade to contract.

"A large part of the fall was the shock to expectations ?the 'Oh my God' factor,' he said. "Anything
postponable largely got postponed."

In the aftermath of the banking crisis, Prof Baldwin said, consumers cut back sharply on consumer
durables and businesses put investments on ice. He calculates that those "postponable" goods
make up 60-70 per cent of global trade in new energy goods(solar energy). when those purchases resumed from
mid-2009 and buyers sought to make up lost ground, the fall in trade was rapidly reversed.

Economists have been puzzling over why the fall in international commerce was so rapid. Between
October 2008 and January 2009, global goods trade fell by about 20 per cent, a faster decline relative
to economic growth than during the Great Depression.




Author: Haining City, New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Sang Chao
Main Products: solar heater, solar energy


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